Several things caught my eye today in the news and from the National Association of REALTORS (NAR). 

First, Anglos Angelou, who I have heard speak several times, gave his economic outlook for Austin 2008.  He basically said that he expects 2008 to be flat, but we should expect to see a better economy in 2009 and beyond.  Angelou predicts that Austin will see job growth of around 2.3% in 2008.  That is around half the rate we peaked at in early 2007.  He expects 2009 to be stronger, with the Austin area adding about 23,000 jobs.  That would be a job growth for 2009 of around 3%.  Population growth is expected by Angelou to be around 85,000 people over the next two years.  The Austin area grew by around 42,000 people in 2007 and around 59,000 in 2006.

What Angelou said about the local housing market was interesting.  He predicted that we will continue to see rising apartment rents and slow movement of homes in the $180,000 and under price range.  Angelou also said that Austin could see a shortage of new houses as many builders have cut housing starts a lot. 

NAR said that homes sales across the country dropped 13%.  That is not much of a surprise for anyone following the news, but it is a big number.  In the Austin area, sales of homes were down 8% in 2007.  2006 was a record setting year so not many people expected 2007 to be as strong and the although national market affected Austin, an 8% drop isn't too bad.  However, sales are forecast to continue to drop in 2008.

There was a comment left on a blog post I wrote the other day about a slow-down in the technology sector nation-wide and world-wide.  The anonymous poster stated that Applied Materials announced a 1500 person layoff.  Austin is tech heavy and Applied Materials is here.  Austin will probably be affected by this.  With world-wide demand for tech products slowing, the poster said that we should expect more layoffs and Austin will be impacted by that.

More numbers and more predictions.  If nothing terribly dramatic happens nationally like a huge recession, Austin is looking relatively strong.  It one or huge corporate entities announce huge layoffs, the entire picture for Austin may change.  Nobody really has the crystal ball that we would all like to look in so my thought is that we need to pay attention to news and numbers, but not live in fear of them.

Fast Forward to July, 2008 for a new Austin-Round Rock Economic Outlook.