Austin Home Pricing Update
I have been getting call and emails asking me to find people great deals since the Austin market is slowing. Buyers from other markets have been coming and low-balling sellers all over the place. Is it reasonable to expect a great deal in Austin? Are things really as bad as the press would have us believe?
Check out the stats I just pulled from the MLS for the five county Austin area. What I compared was different price ranges for January 1, 1007 through April 5, 2007 to the same time period for this year. These are sales of single-family homes and does not include condos or townhomes unless they were entered by listing agents into the MLS as single-family. The results:
1-1-07 through 4-5-07 1-1-08 through 4-5-08
$149,999 and under
1941 Sold 1224 Down 717 or 37%
Average sold price $118,548 $119,897 Up 1.1%
Average Days On Market 54 51 Down 3
Current months of inventory 1.8
Obviously, the sub-prime loan market dried up cutting out buyers and lowering the number of homes sold under $150,000. No surprise there. What is interesting is that there really isn't that much inventory and prices are holding up as a result. Houses have also been selling faster.
$150,000 to $249,999
2041 Sold 1902 Down 139 or 7%
Average sold price $187,555 $186,893 Down .3%
Average Days On Market 58 65 Up 7
Current months of inventory 2.8
This price range remained relatively healthy in terms of stable prices, but sales were down. We are getting into the better selling season and it will be interesting to see what happens over the next 90 or so days. Months of inventlry is still quite low, making this price range a seller's market in a general sense.
$250,000 to $349,999
812 Sold 714 Down 98 or 12%
Average sold price $288,007 $283,046 Down 1.7%
Average Days On Market 70 83 Up 13
Current months of inventory 4
I was surprised to see these numbers. Having said that, if I broke sales in this price range to areas served by the better schools, I think the numbers would be much better. I checked sales of homes in the area served by Bowie High School, one of the best Austin ISD high schools and over the last 30 days 20 homes have sold and they have gotten 99% of list price.
$350,000 to $449,999
402 Sold 375 Down 27 or 7%
Average sold price $382,109 $380,701 Down less than 1%
Average Days On Market 77 79 Down 2
Current months of inventory 5
This price range was stronger than I thought I would see. Sales were down slightly, prices were relatively stable and the time to sell a house actually dropped.
$450,000 to $649,999
309 Sold 2088 Down 101 or 33%
Average sold price $513,169 $512,902 Down less than .1%
Average Days On Market 83 97 Up 14
Current months of inventory 8
I expanded the price range here and over because I know that fewer homes would have been sold in both years. This was a weak price range as far as the number of sales, but prices held up well. Let's see if that changes as new construction in some areas continues to sit. Builders are going to have to start letting go.
$650,000 to $849,999
95 Sold 93 Down 2 or 2%
Average sold price $714,919 $698,820 Down 2.3%
Average Days On Market 106 106 Unchanged
Current months of inventory 9
This price range was stronger than I expected. Sales were close to the same and the prices were only slightly off. Days on market was unchanged. As I mentioned previously, I wonder what change we will see here because of new home inventory being high.
$850,000 through $999,999
45 Sold 31 Down 14 or 31%
Average sold price $883,501 $875,149 Down .9%
Average Days On Market 132 96 Down 36
Current months of inventory 17
This is what I expected the previous price range, but the slow-down didn't hit until the price point went up. What was quite unexpected was the decreased time to sell.
$1,000,000 and up
72 Sold 44 Down 28 or 39%
Average sold price $1,919,464 $1,537,982 Down 20%
Average Days On Market 134 134 Unchanged
Current months of inventory 30
I would not trust the price decline stat for the $1 million and up range as the highest priced house sold at $12,000,000 in 1997 compared to a high of $3,225,000.
The method I used to calculate months of inventory for each price range was adding pending sales to sold houses for the last 30 days and dividing that into the number of active listings.
Keep in mind that different parts of the Austin area will perform differently. For example, of the homes in the slow $850,000 to $999,999 price range, 63 active listings are in the Lake South and Lake West Areas of the MLS. This is the south Lake Travis area. There has been only one home in this price range sold over the last 30 days, giving this area a 63 month supply of homes. Sellers, are you seeing this? If you NEED to sell, rather than just want to sell, you probably need to adjust the price if you don't want the house to just sit there. Buyers, can you expect a deal? It all depends on what the seller's motivation is.
OK, there is your update. It only took me two hours to put together and I hope it is helpful to anyone reading this.