I've been waiting and waiting for this time of year to get here.  No, not football season, although I am thrilled that it is here.  Right now is when the door really got slammed on buyers who could not qualify.  This is the time that lenders put the huge squeeze on borrowers.  Now that September and October are here we will see stats at a time that the market conditions were actually the same as 12 months ago.  Finally we can compare apples to apples.

Austin has seen prices rise or remain flat for the until September.  Read on and look at stats from our friends at Alamo Title Co.

Units for Sale:
Sept. 28 - Oct. 4, 2008
(compared to the same week in 2007)
New listings down this week 20.06%
Pendings down 22.65%
Solds up 56.03%
As for Average Prices:
Sept. 28 - Oct 4, 2008
Sold average sales prices decreased 4.66% to $244,418.  In 2007 it was $256,360 for the same week.

September 2008
Units for Sale: (compared to September 2007)
New listings were down 6.23%.
Pendings were down 3.94%.
Solds increased by 7.37%.

As for Average Prices:

The "New Listings" average list price is down 0.11% to 322,116.  In September 2007 the average list price was $322,466. 
Sold average sales prices decreased 5.52% to $242,215.  For September 2007 it was $256,360.

Did you know that we had 11,323 active listings during the same week in 2007?  Today there is 11,863 active listings!  That is a 4.77% increase from last year.

So what are we seeing here?  First, I want to see October results to see if this will be a trend, but what we are seeing is a pick-up in home sales and a decrease in prices.

My comments:  I really want to see October stats when they come out to see if this is a blip or the beginning of a trend.  But what this data tells us is that more homes are selling and prices are dropping.  We're also seeing a drop in the number of new listings.  I suspect that over the next few months we may see a decrease in the number of Active listings. 

For one thing, builders aren't starting a bunch of specs and they are dumping existing inventory.  This should lead to a reduction in the number of listings as the new stuff gets sold off.  The incredible deals builders have been offering should help force prices down.  The excessive amount of inventory, especially of high-end homes in places like the Lake South area of the MLS will cause a few things.  First, a huge number of these homes that haven't sold are either up for lease or have been leased.  This should start a slight drop in available supply.  Second, some of these builders are taking a hit when selling, causing a drop in prices in the higher price ranges.

Of course in this time of incredible uncertainty with the economy, it is anybody's guess what will happen with housing as well as other sectors of the economy.  Austin, as much of Texas, is very strong economically, but we can't keep up good numbers if the nation or globe fall into a deep recession.

Richard from Cedar City left a comment on an earlier post about people waiting to buy to see if prices will drop more.  That is always a gamble.  Money is available for people with good jibs, good credit and money in the bank.  Interest rates are still pretty darned low.  Some sellers who must sell, as opposed to those who want to sell, are pricing aggressively and this could result in good deals.  If you are an Austin home buyer, I would keep my eyes open and strike when a great deal presents itself.