I was going to post this today anyway, but Ralph's comments made me almost want to post just for him.

Lake Travis ISD Home Sale Stats
I'm thinking that the numbers may be too small to read, so here goes.  What this shows is home sales and average prices in the Lake Travis ISD from October, 2008 through March 2 of this year.  Some highlights if you are a buyer:

In the price range from $200,000 to $249999, only 4 homes sold per month and there was a 17 month inventory in this price range.  In the $400,000 to $499,999 price range, there was a 9 month supply with just 5 homes selling per month.  If you go to the high end, there was an 84 month supply of homes priced from $900,000 top $999,999 and a 60 month supply at over $1 million.

OK, so why is it looking so very slow out here?  First, builders went a little nuts with home starts in 2007 and 2008.  When the economy started melting down in 2008, they were still building what they started and the number of buyers decreased.  Part of this was the fact that stated income and no documentation loans went away.  This cut buyers out of the market.  Part of it was prospective buyers not being able to sell in other markets so they were not buying here.  I have worked with a good number of those folks.

Then there were the months of November and December.  January saw a 63% decrease in home sales in this area.  That was a result of November and December being dead slow - there were many fewer offers being made.  Part of that was uncertainty about the economy and I think a lot of it was people waiting to see what would happen with the elections in January.

Does this mean prices will continue to drop?  On average I would have to say yes.  Part of this is builders slashing prices to move inventory.  That puts pressure on the resale market.  Does this mean that buyers should wait to buy?  I'm not sure.  If a buyer is picky about the type of home, that buyer should probably buy now while the cost of borrowing is so low.  If a buyer isn't that particular about the kind of house, it might be a good move to wait.  If a buyer is looking at new construction, I think that buyer should jump in and buy.  Even though the inventory of new homes in this area is relatively high, it will shrink and very few builders are starting speculative homes right now.

Ralph,or any other buyers, if you aren't already working with an agent, I would welcome a call.  My number is 512-293-2422.  You can also search Austin homes and Lake Travis ISD area homes in the area on my website.