When Will the Rains Return?
I'm not a weatherman, but I am something of a weather junkie. I know that when El Nino is present in the Pacific, the Austin area typically sees more rain. So I did some internet searches a couple of weeks ago and found what appeared to be somewhat of a consensus that El Nino appears to be coming back. I did an article for the Austin Post about this entitled El Nino and Rain for Central Texas.
What I learned that may affect us: El Nino is an abnormal pattern that sees increased water temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean. This causes the typical weather pattern to change. The trade winds in the south Pacific weaken or move to the east toward the U.S. Winters are usually warmer in the north centran and northeast States and the west and southwest states are usually cooler and wetter than normal.
A fairly strong El Nino was present in 1991. In early December, 1991, the level of lake Travis was at around 675 feet above see level. Then we got hit with some serious rain and the lake shot up to its record high of around 710.5 feet. That was just 3.5 feet below the spillway of Mansfield Dam. Lake Travis fell to around 685 feet about a month later and then shot up to 705 in February.
El Nino was present in 1982 and 1983 and Lake Travis was above normal. It was present again in in 1994 and we didn't see a lot of rain. 1997 and 1998 saw the return of El Nino and Lake Travis rose to 705 feet, but that was in the summer. You can see a list of El Nino years here.
If you are wondering if there is a flip side to El Nino, there is. It is the cooling of the tropical Pacific and is called La Nina. If you go to the link above to see El Nino years, you will also see La Nina years. Then go to a website that shows the historical levels of Lake Travis here and see the link between El Nino and La Nina and the level of the lake. It is very telling.
If we get a significant El Nino this fall and this winter, we could actually see the lake fill up, but will that happen? We just need to wait and see.