For many people, 2009 has been a tough year.  Many have lost jobs, some have lost homes and the media has done an outstanding job pointing out how bad things have been. 

However, this is a time for happiness, reflection and planning.  Christmas is 2 days away and for all of those who celebrate it for the right reason, Merry Christmas!  For all of you who celebrate anything at all this time of year, happy holidays to you too!

I remember back when the movie 2010 came out in 1984 and I never imagined the actual year of 2010 would get here.  I remember the turn of the century and the huge Y2K scare that proved to be nothing.  Well, 2009 is ending and 2010 is around the corner.  What might it hold for the country and for Austin?

My own thoughts are that the country will not see a significant movement out of the recession until the end of the year if at all, but I hope I am wrong.  I don't buy the government's talk about things getting better.  I just see them getting in the way.

Home sales in Austin picked up dramatically in November, but don't make too much of that.  The tax credit probably had more to do with the surge in home sales than anything else.   So what about Austin home sales for 2010?

I have seen the normal seasonal slow-down in website traffic lately.  I was getting up to 3200 visitors per week last May and now I am getting around half of that.   I was averaging just over 4 people registering per day to use the property search feature on my site.  During November and December, excluding the Thanksgiving weekend, I have seen between 1600 and 1750 visitors per week and have been averaging just under 3 registrations per day.  People usually start looking at homes online around 6 months ahead of when they actually look at homes in person.  These numbers tell me that there will be an increase in activity this spring and summer.

Another indication of increased activity is the number of phone calls and emails I have been getting. Each has seen an increase.  I have also shown homes to people who may be moving here in around 90 days if they take a job that has been offered.

What about the first-time home buyer tax credit extension and the up to $8000 tax credit for home buyers who are not first-timers?  I don't think there will be a huge rush of first-timers.  My thinking is that the ones who were ready and able bought before they thought the credit would expire.  How else do you explain a huge jump in November sales over last year?  The Statesman reported just a few days ago that sales of Austin area homes were up 58% over last November.

I have also been getting a number of inquires about Austin homes from people in states like New York and California where taxes are through the roof compared to Texas.  I understand that our property taxes are high, but these people are still getting hit hard especially if they are high wage earners.  Many have told me that they can conduct business anywhere, so why not consider Austin?

I think that home sales in the Austin area in 2010 will be a lot like 2009.  We may see a bit of a surge early in the year from people taking advantage of the tax credit.  However, many of these might be pushing sales earlier in the year as they may have been planning to buy later.  So we may actually see a bit of a slow-down after June when the credit expires.  

I'd love to be wrong.  I would love to see Austin's economy catch fire, but as we are tied to the rest of the country and the rest of the world, I don't see that happening.

To everyone reading this (and everyone else), I wish you the best through the holidays and a safe, healthy and prosperous 2010.